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バーナンキ議会証言を受けたQE3のお祭り
これもメルマガ用のメモ。

CalculatedRiskより
 →Did Bernanke shift on QE3?
 This isn't like Jackson Hole last year when Bernanke telegraphed QE2. If this is a shift in tone, it is slight.
 ジャクソンホールの時のような強い示唆ではなく、ほんのちょっとの示唆かも。

Economist's Viewより
 リンク集。QE3関係がチラホラ。

zero hedgeより。
the Chairsatan  バーナンキ議長のことなのね。
Fed is prepared to confirm its madness by doing for the third time what failed twice already まあ、そこまで酷評する必要はないと思うが。

 前号メルマガで解説したように、ビハインド・ザ・カーブの緩和になると思う。
by bank.of.japan | 2011-07-14 21:30 | FRB&others | Comments(0)
イタリア炎上とユーロの対応
メルマガのメモ用
 
先週末から雲行きが怪しかったイタリアが炎上した。
  幾つかポイント。
 なぜ炎上したのか。
 デフォルト認定させないための水面下の圧力。
 流動性がある市場とない市場の差。
 民間に負担させる議論の台頭。
 リスクヘッジの売りが拡大。

ユーロの対応
 セーフティネットの不備。
 どの国が救われるのか、それとも救わないのか。
 大丈夫、大丈夫じゃない、の境界があいまい。

不安の連鎖に歯止めがかからない、それが何度も続くのではないか。
システミックリスクを孕みながらの危機の繰り返し?

ECB資産の劣化が進む…
by bank.of.japan | 2011-07-13 17:09 | ユーロ | Comments(1)
BIS年次リポート・金融政策パートの結論部分
メルマガ解説(BISビューの増長?不幸の金融政策)の補足資料用
http://foomii.com/00016
http://magazine.livedoor.com/magazine/26
踏み込み過ぎの主張&少し方向も違うと思う。

Summing up

In the current monetary environment, policymakers face several daunting
challenges. The increase in the size and complexity of central bank balance
sheets resulting from unconventional monetary policies and foreign reserve
accumulation creates risks that, if left unchecked, could eventually impact
monetary policy credibility. At the same time, soaring commodity prices have
pushed headline inflation rates up to uncomfortable levels in many economies,
while tighter capacity constraints have heightened the risks of second-round
inflation effects. These increased upside risks to inflation call for higher policy
rates, but in some advanced economies this still needs to be balanced against
the vulnerabilities associated with continuing private and public sector balance
sheet adjustments and lingering financial sector fragility. However, the prolonged
period of very low interest rates entails the risk of creating serious financial
distortions, misallocations of resources and delay in the necessary deleveraging
in those advanced countries most affected by the crisis. Moreover, some
emerging market economies show signs of a renewed build-up of financial
imbalances.
Tighter global monetary policy is needed in order to contain inflation
pressures and ward off financial stability risks. It is also crucial if central banks
are to preserve their hard-won inflation fighting credibility, which is particularly
important now, when high public and private sector debt may be perceived as
constraining the ability of central banks to maintain price stability. Central
banks may have to be prepared to raise policy rates at a faster pace than in
previous tightening episodes.
by bank.of.japan | 2011-07-04 00:02 | FRB&others | Comments(0)


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